Thanks to my own 13 games of Jeopardy! and the book about it and all, lots of people (including the New York Times) have asked my opinion about the whole IBM computer vs. Ken Jennings vs. Brad Rutter cage match, airing next Mon-Wed (check local listings). Let’s be clear: I have no inside knowledge, and while Ken and Brad are both friends of mine, we haven’t discussed the games. I’m just a former player doing color commentary before the big game.

Here’s what you might not see at home: at the top tournament level, every player can figure out nearly all of the correct responses, no matter how arcane. When I was in fighting shape for the Masters tournament at Radio City in 2002, I could usually suss out at least 50 of the 61 clues in a game, and sometimes up to 55 — and I was hardly the strongest player. (The trick isn’t actually knowledge — obviously! if you know me — but getting in the fast-lateral-thinking groove.) I got my butt handed to me, in fact, by a guy who eventually got his butt handed to him by Brad.

IBM wouldn’t unveil their spiffy new buzzerbox unless they were sure it could solve a similar number of clues. And they definitely have a good idea of Watson’s ability, after many months of honing its skills in mock games against progressively more successful real-life Jeopardy! champs. (Full disclosure: I was invited to play in the final round of mock games, but I had to drop out due to illness. Damn, that would have been fun.)

At Brad’s and Ken’s gods-throwing-lightning
level, the difference between winning and losing usually isn’t
mental agility, but the ability to time the milliseconds
between the moment Alex finishes the clue and one of the
producers activates the buzzers, slamming your thumb down with
either (a) near-perfect reflexes at the off-camera lights
telling you the buzzers are go, or (b) a near-perfect guess at
the off-stage producer’s timing.

Since a computer can
obviously react to the “go” lights more rapidly and
consistently than any human, it will probably win. My two
cents, anyway.

The only alternative I can imagine is if
Watson is given a human-like randomness in buzzing of a few
milliseconds, but there’s no report I can find of any such
delay. Apparently, if its algorithms generate a feeling of
suave cockiness, dudebox can buzz in
instantly.

Combined with Watson’s inhuman inability to
forget anything or stress out, I don’t see how any mere primate
has a prayer. (And that’s a measure of the amazing
accomplishment of IBM’s engineers. Big applause to them. Still,
the human ego has a fallback: as Ken has noted, Watson still
couldn’t write a clever Jeopardy! clue to
save its backside bus.)

Over a three-game match, our
fellow fleshbags should be seen as huge
underdogs. All of which is why I truly hope one of the guys
goes John Henry, using his buzzer like the fabled hammer, and
pulls off a stunning upset.

Let the games
begin!

PS — Brad and Ken will both be still a heck of
a lot more fun to hang out with afterward, either way. Brad
does improv comedy now, and Ken’s blog is one
of my favorite daily reads — a daily fascination with cool
arcana that I can only imagine BB readers will
love.